Racial/Ethnic differences in receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs in New York City.

Introduction: We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in the receipt of naloxone distributed by opioid overdose prevention programs (OOPPs) in New York City (NYC). Methods: We used naloxone recipient racial/ethnic data collected by OOPPs from April 2018 to March 2019. We aggregated quarterly neighborhood-specific rates of naloxone receipt and other covariates to 42 NYC neighborhoods. We used a multilevel negative binomial regression model to assess the relationship between neighborhood-specific naloxone receipt rates and race/ethnicity. Race/ethnicity was stratified into four mutually exclusive groups: Latino, non-Latino Black, non-Latino White and non-Latino Other. We also conducted racial/ethnic-specific geospatial analyses to assess whether there was within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates for each racial/ethnic group. Results: Non-Latino Black residents had the highest median quarterly naloxone receipt rate of 41.8 per 100,000 residents, followed by Latino residents (22.0 per 100,000), non-Latino White (13.6 per 100,000) and non-Latino Other residents (13.3 per 100,000). In our multivariable analysis, compared with non-Latino White residents, non-Latino Black residents had a significantly higher receipt rate and non-Latino Other residents had a significantly lower receipt rate. In the geospatial analyses, both Latino and non-Latino Black residents had the most within-group geographic variation in naloxone receipt rates compared to non-Latino White and Other residents. Conclusions: This study found significant racial/ethnic differences in naloxone receipt from NYC OOPPs. We observed substantial variation in naloxone receipt for non-Latino Black and Latino residents across neighborhoods, indicating relatively poorer access in some neighborhoods and opportunities for new approaches to address geographic and structural barriers in these locations.

Population-level health and economic impacts of introducing Vaccae vaccination in China: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Given the ageing epidemic of tuberculosis (TB), China is facing an unprecedented opportunity provided by the first clinically approved next-generation TB vaccine Vaccae, which demonstrated 54.7% efficacy for preventing reactivation from latent infection in a phase III trial. We aim to assess the population-level health and economic impacts of introducing Vaccae vaccination to inform policy-makers. METHODS: We evaluated a potential national Vaccae vaccination programme in China initiated in 2024, assuming 20 years of protection, 90% coverage and US$30/dose government contract price. An age-structured compartmental model was adapted to simulate three strategies: (1) no Vaccae; (2) mass vaccination among people aged 15-74 years and (3) targeted vaccination among older adults (60 years). Cost analyses were conducted from the healthcare sector perspective, discounted at 3%. RESULTS: Considering postinfection efficacy, targeted vaccination modestly reduced TB burden (~20%), preventing cumulative 8.01 (95% CI 5.82 to 11.8) million TB cases and 0.20 (0.17 to 0.26) million deaths over 2024-2050, at incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$4387 (2218 to 10 085) per disability adjusted life year averted. The implementation would require a total budget of US$22.5 (17.6 to 43.4) billion. In contrast, mass vaccination had a larger bigger impact on the TB epidemic, but the overall costs remained high. Although both preinfection and postinfection vaccine efficacy type might have a maximum impact (>40% incidence rate reduction in 2050), it is important that the vaccine price does not exceed US$5/dose. CONCLUSION: Vaccae represents a robust and cost-effective choice for TB epidemic control in China. This study may facilitate the practice of evidence-based strategy plans for TB vaccination and reimbursement decision making.

Translating and disseminating a localised economic model to support implementation of the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative to public health policymakers.

Background: Despite significant progress in HIV treatment and prevention, the US remains far from its goal of 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' by 2030. Economic models using local data can synthesise the evidence to help policymakers allocate HIV resources efficiently, but persistent research-to-practice gaps remain. Little is known about how to facilitate the use of economic modelling data among local public health policymakers in real-world settings. Aims and objectives: To explore the dissemination of results from a locally-calibrated economic model for HIV prevention and treatment and identify the factors influencing potential uptake of the model for public health decision making at the local level. Methods: Four virtual focus groups with 26 local health department policymakers in Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, and New York City were held between July 2020 and May 2021. Qualitative content analysis of transcripts identified key themes around using the localised economic model in policy decisions. Results: Participants were interested in using local data in their decisions to allocate resources for HIV prevention/treatment. Six themes emerged: 1) importance of understanding local policy context; 2) health equity considerations; 3) using evidence to support current priorities; 4) difficulty of changing strategies, even incrementally; 5) bang for the incremental buck (efficiency) vs. previous impact; and 6) community values. Conclusion and relevance: To optimise acceptance and use of results from economic models, researchers should engage with local community members and public health decision makers early to understand budgetary and community priorities. Participants prioritised evidence that supports their existing strategies, considers budgets and funding streams, and improves health equity; however, real-world budget constraints and conflicting interests serve as barriers to implementing model recommendations and reaching national goals.

Comparing Projected Fatal Overdose Outcomes and Costs of Strategies to Expand Community-Based Distribution of Naloxone in Rhode Island.

Importance: In 2021, the state of Rhode Island distributed 10 000 additional naloxone kits compared with the prior year through partnerships with community-based organizations. Objective: To compare various strategies to increase naloxone distribution through community-based programs in Rhode Island to identify one most effective and efficient strategy in preventing opioid overdose deaths (OODs). Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical model study conducted from January 2016 to December 2022, a spatial microsimulation model with an integrated decision tree was developed and calibrated to compare the outcomes of alternative strategies for distributing 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually among all individuals at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island. Interventions: Distribution of 10 000 additional naloxone kits annually, focusing on people who inject drugs, people who use illicit opioids and stimulants, individuals at various levels of risk for opioid overdose, or people who misuse prescription opioids vs no additional kits (status quo). Two expanded distribution implementation approaches were considered: one consistent with the current spatial distribution patterns for each distribution program type (supply-based approach) and one consistent with the current spatial distribution of individuals in each of the risk groups, assuming that programs could direct the additional kits to new geographic areas if required (demand-based approach). Main Outcomes and Measures: Witnessed OODs, cost per OOD averted (efficiency), geospatial health inequality measured by the Theil index, and between-group variance for OOD rates. Results: A total of 63 131 simulated individuals were estimated to be at risk for opioid overdose in Rhode Island based on current population data. With the supply-based approach, prioritizing additional naloxone kits to people who use illicit drugs averted more witnessed OODs by an estimated mean of 18.9% (95% simulation interval [SI], 13.1%-30.7%) annually. Expanded naloxone distribution using the demand-based approach and focusing on people who inject drugs had the best outcomes across all scenarios, averting an estimated mean of 25.3% (95% SI, 13.1%-37.6%) of witnessed OODs annually, at the lowest mean incremental cost of $27 312 per OOD averted. Other strategies were associated with fewer OODs averted at higher costs but showed similar patterns of improved outcomes and lower unit costs if kits could be reallocated to areas with greater need. The demand-based approach reduced geospatial inequality in OOD rates in all scenarios compared with the supply-based approach and status quo. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study, variations in the effectiveness, efficiency, and health inequality of the different naloxone distribution expansion strategies and approaches were identified. Future efforts should be prioritized for people at highest risk for overdose (those who inject drugs or use illicit drugs) and redirected toward areas with the greatest need. These findings may inform future naloxone distribution priority settings.

Evaluating equity in community-based naloxone access among racial/ethnic groups in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Racial/ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionate opioid-related overdose death rates in recent years. In this context, we examined inequities in community-based naloxone access across racial/ethnic groups in Massachusetts. METHODS: We used data from: the Massachusetts Department of Public Health on community-based overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs; the Massachusetts Office of the Chief Medical Examiner on opioid-related overdose deaths, and; the United States Census American Community Survey for regional demographic/socioeconomic details to estimate community populations by race/ethnicity and racial segregation between African American/Black and white residents. Race/ethnicity groups included in the analysis were African American/Black (non-Hispanic), Hispanic, white (non-Hispanic), and "other" (non-Hispanic). We evaluated racial/ethnic differences in naloxone distribution across regions in Massachusetts and neighborhoods in Boston descriptively and spatially, plotting the race/ethnicity-specific number of kits per opioid-related overdose death per jurisdiction. Lastly, we constructed generalized estimating equations models with a negative binomial distribution to compare the race/ethnicity-specific naloxone distribution rate by OEND programs. RESULTS: From 2016-2019, the median annual rate of naloxone kits received from OEND programs in Massachusetts per racial/ethnicity group ranged between 160 and 447 per 100,000. In a multivariable analysis, we found that the naloxone distribution rates for racial/ethnic minorities were lower than the rate for white residents. We also found naloxone was more likely to be distributed in racially segregated communities than non-segregated communities. CONCLUSION: We identified racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone receipt by individuals in Massachusetts. Additional resources focused on designing and implementing OEND programs for racial/ethnic minorities are warranted to ensure equitable access to naloxone.

The estimated costs and benefits of a hypothetical supervised consumption site in Providence, Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND: Overdose deaths have increased dramatically in the United States, including in Rhode Island. In July 2021, the Rhode Island government passed legislation supporting a two-year pilot program authorizing supervised consumption sites (SCSs) in response to this crisis. We estimated the costs and benefits of a hypothetical SCS in Providence, Rhode Island. METHODS: We utilized a decision analytic mathematical model to compare costs and outcomes for people who inject drugs under two scenarios: (1) a SCS that includes syringe services provision, and (2) a syringe service program only (i.e., status quo). We assumed 0.95% of injections result in overdose, the SCS would serve 400 clients monthly and have a net cost of $783,899 annually, 46% of overdoses occurring outside of the SCS result in an ambulance run and 43% result in an emergency department (ED) visit, 0.79% of overdoses occurring within the SCS result in an ambulance run and ED visit, and the SCS would lead to a 25.7% reduction in fatal overdoses near the site. The model was developed from a modified societal perspective with a one-year time horizon. RESULTS: A hypothetical SCS in Providence would prevent approximately 2 overdose deaths, 261 ambulance runs, 244 ED visits, and 117 inpatient hospitalizations for emergency overdose care annually compared to a scenario that includes a syringe service program only. The SCS would save $1,104,454 annually compared to the syringe service program only, accounting only for facility costs and short-term costs of emergency overdose care and ignoring savings associated with averted deaths. Influential parameters included the percentage of injections resulting in overdose, the total annual injections at the SCS, and the percentage of overdoses outside of the SCS that result in an ED visit. CONCLUSION: A SCS in would result in substantial cost savings due to prevention of costly emergency overdose care.

Incorporating productivity loss in health economic evaluations: a review of guidelines and practices worldwide for research agenda in China.

INTRODUCTION: Productivity loss may contribute to a large proportion of costs of health conditions in an economic evaluation from a societal perspective, but there is currently a lack of methodological consensus on how productivity loss should be measured and valued. Despite the research progress surrounding this issue in other countries, it has been rarely discussed in China. METHODS: We reviewed the official guidelines on economic evaluations in different countries and regions and screened the literature to summarise the extent to which productivity loss was incorporated in economic evaluations and the underlying methodological challenges. RESULTS: A total of 48 guidelines from 46 countries/regions were included. Although 32 (67%) guidelines recommend excluding productivity loss in the base case analysis, 23 (48%) guidelines recommend including productivity loss in the base case or additional analyses. Through a review of systematic reviews and the economic evaluation studies included in these reviews, we found that the average probability of incorporating productivity loss in an economic evaluation was 10.2%. Among the economic evaluations (n=478) that explicitly considered productivity loss, most (n=455) considered losses from paid work, while only a few studies (n=23) considered unpaid work losses. Recognising the existing methodological challenges and the specific context of China, we proposed a practical research agenda and a disease list for progress on this topic, including the development of the disease list comprehensively consisting of health conditions where the productivity loss should be incorporated into economic evaluations. CONCLUSION: An increasing number of guidelines recommend the inclusion of productivity loss in the base case or additional analyses of economic evaluation. We optimistically expect that more Chinese researchers notice the importance of incorporating productivity loss in economic evaluations and anticipate guidelines that may be suitable for Chinese practitioners and decision-makers that facilitate the advancement of research on productivity loss measurement and valuation.

Community-based naloxone coverage equity for the prevention of opioid overdose fatalities in racial/ethnic minority communities in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Opioid-related overdose death rates continue to rise in the United States, especially in racial/ethnic minority communities. Our objective was to determine if US municipalities with high percentages of non-white residents have equitable access to the overdose antidote naloxone distributed by community-based organizations. METHODS: We used community-based naloxone data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and the Rhode Island non-pharmacy naloxone distribution program for 2016-18. We obtained publicly available opioid-related overdose death data from Massachusetts and the Office of the State Medical Examiners in Rhode Island. We defined the naloxone coverage ratio as the number of community-based naloxone kits received by a resident in a municipality divided by the number of opioid-related overdose deaths among residents, updated annually. We used a Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations to analyze the relationship between the municipal racial/ethnic composition and naloxone coverage ratio. To account for the potential non-linear relationship between naloxone coverage ratio and race/ethnicity we created B-splines for the percentage of non-white residents; and for a secondary analysis examining the percentage of African American/black and Hispanic residents. The models were adjusted for the percentage of residents in poverty, urbanicity, state and population size. RESULTS: Between 2016 and 2018, the annual naloxone coverage ratios range was 0-135. There was no difference in naloxone coverage ratios among municipalities with varying percentages of non-white residents in our multivariable analysis. In the secondary analysis, municipalities with higher percentages of African American/black residents had higher naloxone coverage ratios, independent of other factors. Naloxone coverage did not differ by percentage of Hispanic residents. CONCLUSIONS: There appear to be no municipal-level racial/ethnic inequities in naloxone distribution in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, USA.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccine in China: a systematic review of modelling studies.

OBJECTIVES: China suffers from high burdens of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, whereas the uptake of HPV vaccine remains low. The first Chinese domestic HPV vaccine was released in 2019. However, collective evidence on cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in China has yet to be established. We summarised evidence on the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China. DESIGN: Systematic review and narrative synthesis DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Data were searched through 2 January 2021 ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Cost-effectiveness studies using a modelling approach focusing on HPV vaccination interventions in the setting of China were included for review. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We extracted information from the selected studies focusing on cost-effectiveness results of various vaccination programmes, key contextual and methodological factors influencing cost-effectiveness estimates and an assessment of study quality. RESULTS: A total of 14 studies were included for review. Considerable heterogeneity was found in terms of the methodologies used, HPV vaccination strategies evaluated and study quality. The reviewed studies generally supported the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China, although some reached alternative conclusions, particularly when assessed incremental to cervical cancer screening. Cost of vaccination was consistently identified as a key determinant for the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination programmes. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing HPV vaccination programmes should be complemented with expanded cervical cancer screening, while the release of lower-priced domestic vaccine offers more promising potential for initiating public HPV vaccination programmes. Findings of this study contributes important evidence for policies for cervical cancer prevention in China and methodological implications for future modelling efforts.

Improving health equity and ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis in six cities.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities. METHODS: We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach. FINDINGS: In all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles. INTERPRETATION: Equity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA. FUNDING: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Effectiveness and Efficiency of Non-drug Therapy Among Community-Dwelling Adults With Hypertension in China: A Protocol for Network Meta-Analysis and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Introduction: The Chinese government has established a nationwide community-based chronic disease management program since 2009 with hypertension a vital part of it. Though drugs have been proven effective with hypertensive patients, they bring economic burden as well, especially for those who with elevated blood pressure and are potentially eligible for national programs. When the effectiveness of pharmacotherapy-only interventions remains uncertain on these patients, non-pharmacological interventions have demonstrated non-inferior effectiveness and may have economic advantages. To date, there rarely are evidences on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of non-pharmacological treatment in comparison with pharmacological interventions for patients with varying severity of blood pressure. This study aims to propose a study for a network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to explore what kind of intervention is potentially effective and cost-effective to four specific patient groups, stage I-III hypertensive patients and patients with elevated blood pressure, and to provide recommendations for hypertensive management to Chinese decision makers. Methods: We will systematically search databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, etc.,) for randomized controlled trials and observational studies with qualified study design in recent decade that assess the effectiveness of non-pharmacological, pharmacological, or combined intervention aimed at adult populations who are diagnosed with the above four types of hypertension in China. The effectiveness outcomes will include changes in SBP/DBP, rate of comorbidities, mortality, and health related quality of life. We will use network meta-analysis to compare and rank effectiveness of different interventions. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses will be performed to analyze and explain heterogeneity. The economic outcome will include cost-effectiveness based on simulation results from Markov models. Under study perspective of Chinese health system, life-time direct cost will be included. Discussion: This study aims to compare and rank the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pharmacological, non-pharmacological and combined interventions for stage I-III hypertensive patients and those who with elevated blood pressure. Compared to existing studies, this comprehensive synthesis of relevant evidences will influence future practice with better efficiency and generalizability for community-based hypertensive management programs in China. The study might also be valuable for other low- and middle-income countries to find their own solutions. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020151518.

The Potential Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic and the Cost-effectiveness of Linked, Opt-out HIV Testing: A Modeling Study in 6 US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Widespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years. RESULTS: In the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city. CONCLUSIONS: A campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice. RESULTS: The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US). RESULTS: Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

"Ending the Epidemic" Will Not Happen Without Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the United States Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA. METHODS: In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040. FINDINGS: Optimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period. INTERPRETATION: Evidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

The impact of localized implementation: determining the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention and care interventions across six United States cities.

OBJECTIVE: Effective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics. DESIGN: Dynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: We identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon. RESULTS: Increased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city. CONCLUSION: Combination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Impact of public hospital pricing reform on medical expenditure structure in Jiangsu, China: a synthetic control analysis.

BACKGROUND: The synthetic control method (SCM) is a useful tool in providing unbiased analysis on the policy effect in real-world health policy evaluations. Through controlling for a few confounding factors, we aim to apply SCM in analyzing the impact of the pricing reform on medical expenditure structure in Jiangsu Province, China. METHODS: We constructed a synthetic control for Zhenjiang, a city where the reform was piloted in Jiangsu, by selecting weights on those potential control units to define a linear combination of the control outcomes to replicate the counterfactual as if the intervention is in absence. The policy effect was measured by the differences in the percentage of drug expenditure among average outpatient and inpatient care cost per visit in the post-policy period between Zhenjiang and its synthetic control. We also examined the significance of the estimated results by performing placebo tests, and cross-validated the results with a difference-in-differences analysis. RESULTS: The medical pricing reform was found to be effective in reducing the drug expenditure proportions in both outpatient and inpatient care by an estimated mean level of 7.7 and 3.2% (or 16.3 and 9.2% relative decrease to their 2012 levels) respectively. This reform effect was estimated to be significant in the placebo tests and was further confirmed by a cross-validation. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the pricing reform in public hospitals has significantly reduced drug expenditure incurred in both outpatient and inpatient care. This study also highlights the applicability of SCM method as an effective tool for health policy evaluation using publicly available data in the context of Chinese healthcare system.

Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review.

Born out of a necessity for fiscal sustainability, simulation modeling is playing an increasingly prominent role in setting priorities for combination implementation strategies for HIV treatment and prevention globally. The design of a model and the data inputted into it are central factors in ensuring credible inferences. We executed a narrative review of a set of dynamic HIV transmission models to comprehensively synthesize and compare the structural design and the quality of evidence used to support each model. We included 19 models representing both generalized and concentrated epidemics, classified as compartmental, agent-based, individual-based microsimulation or hybrid in our review. We focused on four structural components (population construction; model entry, exit and HIV care engagement; HIV disease progression; and the force of HIV infection), and two analytical components (model calibration/validation; and health economic evaluation, including uncertainty analysis). While the models we reviewed focused on a variety of individual interventions and their combinations, their structural designs were relatively homogenous across three of the four focal components, with key structural elements influenced by model type and epidemiological context. In contrast, model entry, exit and HIV care engagement tended to differ most across models, with some health system interactions-particularly HIV testing-not modeled explicitly in many contexts. The quality of data used in the models and the transparency with which the data was presented differed substantially across model components. Representative and high-quality data on health service delivery were most commonly not accessed or were unavailable. The structure of an HIV model should ideally fit its epidemiological context and be able to capture all efficacious treatment and prevention services relevant to a robust combination implementation strategy. Developing standardized guidelines on evidence syntheses for health economic evaluation would improve transparency and help prioritize data collection to reduce decision uncertainty.